Category: Recession

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Recession: Impact in Software as a Service(SaaS) 

Global uncertainties continue to dominate headlines. Inflation is expected to reach the highest levels of ~3.5% in the US and Europe by the end of 2023. To ease inflation, Central Banks need to dampen demand, by making it expensive (for financial institutions, businesses and households) to borrow by increasing Federal Reserve interest rates . We are expecting a federal rate hike of 4.75% – 5.0% by the end of 2023. These are all data showing we are heading toward recession. The US labor market was robust last quarter but this quarter it is not very promising. Everyday we are hearing layoff news from different sectors.

IMF inflation forecast

These inflation and layoff news are impacting our tech market. Many companies have a growth challenge: They expect to get as much as 50 percent of their revenue from new businesses and products by 2026 but are not on a path that will take them there. Current economic conditions are forcing high-growth yet unprofitable tech startups to tighten their financial belts.

There are few realities, software companies are facing for their growth.

US-based Venture capitalists backed software startups slowed down – VC are very clear of high valuation and demanding that companies spend less, improve profit margin and high output. Unicorn creation also slowed in 2022 Q4. This is one of the lowest quarterly count since the first quarter of 2020.

Depressed company valuations – Private company valuations are cooling down. Over the last 4 quarters, we have seen public valuations compressing.

 Software companies have three critical revenue streams.

  1. License / Subscription Revenue – When the customer pays for the right to own and use a copy of the software/hardware product or subscribe/access  software platform
  2. software or hardware product – Customer pays for ongoing support or premium support.
  3. Cloud based licensed software – Customer pays the software provider for specific deliverables such as software implementation or technical training.

In the current world all these 3 revenue streams are shrinking. Companies are using only essential services to run their business. This is directly impacting software revenue, which is leading these companies into low valuation.

Infrastructure Maintenance –  SaaS companies are providing the software as a service. This means the customer does not have to purchase hardware to run the software—that cost is transferred to the SaaS provider. This is implying continuous software running coast. This cost is not going anywhere.So due to inflation this SaaS running cost increases tremendously.

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Recession: Industry Impact

Recession prospect is certainly very scary. World over economies are contracting. The recession has had a significant impact on the global economy, leading to decreased GDP growth and an uncertain future for many industries. The IMF cut its forecast of global GDP for the year to 2.7% and for the US GDP growth forecast is 1.4% .China and India are key players for the world’s supply-chain requirement. Post COVID pandemic China is still struggling to provide supply-chain needs to the world and India is still in process to build supply-chain needs. Escalating Russia-Ukraine war and geopolitical tension is disrupting the world’s supply-chain. 

Due to all these issues,Inflation is very high across the world. The inflation rate depends on the balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand within the economy. US inflation consumer prices rose 7% approx. in December 2022 from a year ago. Inflation driving up vendor price beyond budget expectation. The US Federal Reserve is increasing interest rates in the most aggressive way to curb this inflation. 

No industry is completely insulated from a recession, there are always opportunities within even the most impacted industries. The Impact of recession  is not equal for all kinds of industries. Most impacted industries are directly proportional to consumer sentiment, consumer basic requirement and consumer spending. Least impacted industries are not directly proportion to user sentiment and it is also supported by external system.

Here is worldwide recession industry impact index

In the above chart, most impact industries are consumer, consumer services and transportation. After COVID-19 this industry is cautiously optimistic about the return of travel and tourism. But  inflation and a volatile market are pulling these industries down. Loyalty programs are weakening between brand and customer. Recession industry impact index is average 8.5/10 approx. Hospitality and Airlines industries are trying to optimize their process to mitigate their risk. They are cutting routes, reducing flights, and, in some cases, shutting down offices to help reduce expenditures.

Retail and Manufacturing industries and also getting impacted with current inflation and escalating geopolitical tension. Clearly the industry has experienced unprecedented supply chain pressures and disruptions over the past two years; Global disruptions – such as the Russia / Ukraine war – continue to impact manufacturing supply chains, thereby increasing costs and delays. Recession industry impact index for this industry is 7.5/10 approx. Retail and Manufacturing industries are working on omni-channel commerce platforms, optimized operations, and omni-channel order orchestration and fulfillment to mitigate their risk. They are reducing overhead cost and going for digital.

The Federal/Central Government is the most recession proof industry. It needs to make ongoing investment to keep the country running. Critical infrastructure management, border, customs and immigration management are key activities the government can not ignore and reduce investment. Even in COVID-19 pandemic time influx of federal funding and ample emergency funds put state and local entities in recession-ready shape. Recession industry impact index for this industry is 1/10 approx.